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    河流突发性二元重金属复合污染暴露风险研究——以东江下游为例

    Joint Exposure Risk Assessment for Dual Heavy Metal Mixing Contamination Emergencies in the Lower Reaches of the Dongjiang River

    • 摘要: 突发性重金属水污染事件是威胁人群健康、河流生态和财产安全的主要环境风险之一.对突发性重金属急性联合暴露风险的研究有助于提高河流风险管理水平,增强风险决策科学性.针对宏观尺度上缺乏突发性重金属复合污染联合效应研究的问题,以河流突发性重金属污染的水动力-水质动态模拟为基础,引入Copula函数,构建二元重金属联合暴露风险评价模型.以中国东江下游河段为案例,开展典型电镀企业突发性Cr (VI)-Hg (II)复合污染的风险评价.结果表明,突发性Cr (VI)-Hg (II)污染急性联合暴露的概率分布受Cr (VI)/Hg (II)单一暴露的边缘分布共同影响,非"线性加和"关系;Cr (VI)边缘概率分布对Cr (VI)-Hg (II)联合暴露概率分布的影响更显著.基于Copula函数的联合暴露风险评价模型实现了宏观水环境中多种重金属急性联合暴露风险的定量化表征,具有较高的灵活性与准确性.

       

      Abstract: Acute heavy metal leakage accidents pose an essential threat to human health, ecosystem balance, and property security in a river.Joint exposure risk assessment for an accidental heavy metal mixed pollution is helpful to improve the quality and delicacy of risk prevention and management.To address the lack of research on the joint exposure risk assessment of accidental river pollution caused by heavy metal leakage, a Copula-based exposure risk dynamic simulation model was proposed.A coupled hydrodynamic and accidental heavy metal exposure model is constructed for an hourly simulation of the concentration distributions of heavy metals from each risk source once accidental leakage has occurred.The Copula analysis was introduced to calculate the dual heavy metal joint exposure probability in real time.This method was applied to an acute Cr(VI)-Hg(II) joint exposure risk assessment for a typical electroplating enterprise in the mainstream of the lower reaches of the Dongjiang River.The results indicated the Cr(VI)-Hg(II) joint exposure probability distributions were influenced by both Cr(VI) and Hg(II) marginal exposure functions, rather than the linear superposition.Besides, acute Cr(VI) exposure has a greater impact on the joint exposure probability distributions, compared to the acute Hg(II) exposure.This research highlights an effective probabilistic approach for performing a joint exposure risk analysis of accidental river pollution caused by the heavy metal mixtures.

       

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