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    递归图理论在不同时间尺度下的径流混沌特征分析

    Analysis on Runoff Characteristics of Recurrence Plot Theory Under Different Time Scales

    • 摘要: 以黑河上游莺落峡水文站1944~2017年的出山径流量为研究对象,将递归图理论与混沌理论相结合,在不同时间尺度下对径流时间序列混沌特征进行了有效辨识.利用递归图和滑移窗递归定量分析法(RQA)获取原始时间序列的动力学信息,提取出相关递归特征量;绘制不同尺度下的径流递归图,对径流混沌特性进行定性描述;利用RQA对混沌特性进行定量计算和检验.结果显示,在不同阶段径流的混沌程度各不相同,滑移窗的确定性(DET)可与递归图共同描述径流的混沌程度;滑移窗的Shannon熵(ENTR)显示径流的混沌程度随着时间尺度的增加而逐渐增大;滑移窗的层状性(LAM)与传统的水文学特征量——变差系数(Cv)的计算结果相互检验,可作为一种新的衡量径流离散程度的参数.递归图理论实现了径流混沌特征的可视化,是辨识径流时间序列混沌特征的有效工具.

       

      Abstract: Taking runoff from the Yingluoxia hydrological station in the upper reaches of Heihe River from 1944 to 2017 as the research object,combining recurence plot theory with chaos theory,the chaotic characteristics of runoff time series were effectively identified under different time scales.The recurence plot and slip window recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) method were used to obtain dynamic information of the original series and extracted the relevant recurence features.Then,drawing the runoff recurence plot under different scales to qualitatively describe runoff chaotic characteristics.Finally,RQA method was used to calculate and quantitatively describe runoff chaotic characteristics.The results showed that runoff chaotic degree varies in different stages,and determinism (DET) of sliding window can describe runoff chaotic degree together with recurence plot.Shannon entropy (ENTR) of sliding window showed that runoff chaotic degree gradually increases with the increase of time scale.And Laminarity (LAM) of sliding window can be tested with coefficient of variation (Cv),and can be used as a new parameter to measure runoff overall dispersion.The recurence plot theory realizes the visualization of runoff chaotic characteristics and is an effective tool to identify the chaotic characteristics of runoff time series.

       

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