考虑颗粒组成的堰塞体溃口峰值流量快速预测模型
A Rapid Prediction Model for Peak Breach Flow of Landslide Dams Considering the Grain Composition of Deposits
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摘要: 堰塞体的溃决洪水会给下游人民生命财产带来重大的威胁,快速、准确地预测溃口峰值流量,对科学评估堰塞体溃决致灾后果和应急响应具有重要意义.国内外学者基于堰塞体溃决案例调查资料,采用回归分析方法,提出了一系列预测堰塞体溃口峰值流量的参数模型,但已有的模型均未考虑堰塞体颗粒组成对溃口峰值流量的影响.基于国内外86座堰塞体案例的颗粒级配曲线,分析了3种不同类型堰塞体(土质型、混合型、块石型)的颗粒组分特性,并提出了堰塞体类型的定量划分指标.基于国内外已开展的模型试验结果及具有实测数据的堰塞体溃决案例,通过分析不同堰塞体类型、堰塞体形态、堰塞湖体积与溃口峰值流量之间的关系,选择堰塞体高度、宽度、溃决时的堰塞湖体积以及自定义的考虑颗粒组成的冲蚀因子等4个参数,采用多元回归分析方法,建立了堰塞体溃口峰值流量的快速预测模型.选取近年来发生的5座堰塞体溃决案例,对提出的模型进行验证,并与国内外已有的典型参数模型进行对比,计算结果表明,提出的参数模型计算溃口峰值流量的相对误差均在±20%以内,与其他模型相比具有一定的优势,验证了该模型的准确性.Abstract: Outburst floods caused by the breaching of landslide dams pose severe threats to lives and properties downstream.Rapid and accurate prediction of peak breach flow is vital for scientific assessment of the potential disaster consequences after landslide dam breaching and emergency response.Based on the investigation data of landslide dam breach cases,scholars worldwide have proposed a series of parametric models to predict the peak breach utilizing regression analysis.However,the existing parametric models cannot consider the effect of the grain composition of landslide dam deposits on the peak breach flow.Based on 86 worldwide landslide dam cases with grain-size distribution curves,the grain composition characteristics of three types of landslide dams(soil type,mixed type,and block stone type) are analyzed,and quantitative classification indexes of landslide dam types are proposed.Using experimental test results and field breach cases with measured data,the relationships between landslide dam type,morphology,dammed lake volume,and peak breach flow,dam height,dam width,dammed lake volume,and self-defined erosion factor considering the grain composition are selected as input parameters.A rapid prediction model for the peak breach flow of landslide dams is developed using multiple regression analysis.Five recent landslide dam breach cases are adopted to verify the proposed model in this study,and a comparison study with the existing typical parametric models is conducted.The calculation results show that the proposed model’s relative errors of peak breach flow are all within ±20%.Overall,the proposed model has several advantages,such as quick computation time and better accuracy compared to previous models.