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    新疆高寒山区泥石流发育区地形和积雪演变分析

    Analysis of Topographic and Snowpack Evolution in Debris Flow-Prone Areas of Xinjiang's Alpine Region

    • 摘要: 使用数字高程模型和中国MODIS逐日无云500m积雪数据,研究了新疆高寒山区的叶尔羌河流域.根据泥石流灾害点的分布特征,该区域被划分为泥石流发育区(极高/高易发区)和非发育区(低/极低易发区),并分析了各分区的地质条件和积雪演变特征.研究结果表明:(1)泥石流发育区主要的地质条件:海拔为4 000~5 000m、坡度为8°~20°、阴坡坡向(占发育区3.10%).灾害点多集中在海拔小于3 000m、坡度为8°~20°、半阴坡的区域.(2)极高易发区的积雪覆盖百分比(SCP)在所有区域中最小(平均SCP为10.26%),年际变化最大(标准差条带面积最大).高易发区绝大部分时间SCP最高(平均为40.52%),年际变化较小.(3) 泥石流发育区的积雪天数(SCD)为110.6d,长于非发育区(86.86d),积雪开始时间(SCOD)和融雪开始时间(SCMD)也较早(SCOD:339.46/342.70DOY;SCMD:97.59/102.46DOY).两个区域的SCD和SCMD均呈现减少趋势,SCOD呈增加趋势,但发育区的变化趋势较为显著,使其SCD更长.对叶尔羌河流域泥石流发育地形和积雪演变特征定量分析,以期为新疆高寒山区泥石流灾害的防治提供依据和参考.

       

      Abstract: This study investigates the Yarkant River basin in Xinjiang’s alpine region using a digital elevation model and cloud-free 500m snow data from MODIS.The region was classified into two zones based on debris flow hazard characteristics:a debris flow-prone zone (very high/high susceptibility) and a non-prone zone (low/very low susceptibility).The geologic conditions and snowpack evolution characteristics of each zone were analyzed.The results show:(1)The primary geological conditions in the debris flow-prone zone are elevations:4 000~5 000m,slopes:8°~20°,and shaded slopes (3.10% of the prone zone).Hazard sites are mainly concentrated in areas with elevations below 3 000 meters,slopes of 8°~20°,and semi-shaded aspects.(2)The snow cover percentage (SCP) in the very high susceptibility zone is the lowest among all zones (average SCP:10.26%) and exhibits the greatest inter-annual variability (largest standard deviation).Conversely,the high susceptibility zone generally has the highest SCP (average SCP:40.52%) with lower inter-annual variability.(3)Snow-covered days (SCD) are longer in the debris flow-prone area (110.6 days) compared to the non-prone area (86.86 days),and both the onset date of snow cover (SCOD) and the start date of snowmelt (SCMD) are earlier in the prone area (SCOD:339.46/342.70DOY;SCMD:97.59/102.46DOY).Both zones show decreasing trends in SCD and SCMD,and an increasing trend in SCOD,with the debris flow-prone area exhibiting more pronounced changes,leading to a longer SCD.This study quantitatively analyzes the topographical and snowpack characteristics of debris flow-prone areas in the Yarkant River basin,providing a foundation for the prevention and management of debris flow disasters in Xinjiang’s alpine mountains;Snowpack characteristics;Topographic variables.

       

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