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    河冰系统混沌特征演变分析

    Analysis of Chaotic Characteristics and Their Evolution of River Ice System

    • 摘要: 河冰生长消融机理对冰凌灾害预警具有重要的指导作用,明确河冰是否存在混沌特性对理解河冰生长消融物理机理具有理论意义.为了全面解析河冰内部能量分布特征,选取黑龙江干流上游漠河断面作为研究对象,对2014~2018年江边层温和江心层压以及气温进行原型观测,采用混沌学理论,对河冰系统进行混沌特性演变分析,结合原型观测确定河冰系统线性和非线性转变时间.研究结果表明:河冰层温/层压在封冻期呈有序状态,而在融冰状态呈明显的无序状态;在封冻期最大Lyapunov指数大多小于0,部分大于0的时段主要集中于14~16时,在河冰融冰阶段均由负转正,呈现混沌特性;最大Lyapunov指数转正日期与平均气温转正日期较为接近,即当平均气温大于0℃时,河冰由线性热传导转为非线性热传导.该研究揭示了河冰生消融期层温的混沌特征及演变规律,以期为寒区水资源管理提供理论支撑.

       

      Abstract: River ice growth and melting conditions are of highly relevance for ice flood disaster warning system.Understanding the physical mechanism of river ice growth and melting is vital to determine the potential existence of chaotic characteristics within river ice.To fully understand the characteristics of intrinsic energy distribution in river ice,we selected the Mohe Station in the upper reaches of the Heilongjiang upstream as research area,and performed in-situ observations of river ice temperature and voltage and air temperature from 2014 to 2018.Chaos theory was used to analyze the chaotic characteristics and their evolution of this river ice system,and the linear and nonlinear transition times of the river ice system were determined based on combinations of chaos theory-based results with long-term observations.Our results show layer temperature/voltage exhibits a well-organized during growth period,but shows an obvious disorder during the melting period.Most of the maximum Lyapunov index are less than 0 during the freezing period,and a few of the maximum Lyapunov index larger than 0 mainly concentrated on between 14 and 16 at pm,which changed from negative to positive during the melting period of river ice,showing chaotic characteristics.The maximum Lyapunov index turning positive date is found to be closely associated with the average above 0℃ date,indicating a transition from linear to nonlinear heat conduction in river ice when the average temperature exceeds 0℃.The study reveals the temporal evolution of layer temperature during river ice formation and melting,thereby offering support for water resources management in cold regions.

       

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