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    基于多变量CNN-LSTM神经网络的白家包滑坡位移预测

    Displacement Prediction of Baijiabao Landslide Based on A Multivariate CNN-LSTM Neural Network

    • 摘要: 滑坡是一种常见的地质灾害,严重威胁着人民生命财产安全.为减少滑坡带来的损失,对滑坡体位移的精准预测显得尤为关键.结合CNN神经网络和LSTM神经网络,采用PCA数据降维和贝叶斯优化超参数,建立了基于CNN-LSTM组合的多变量神经网络模型用于预测滑坡位移.以白家包滑坡为例,基于2017~2019年的12组监测数据,构建了单变量CNN-LSTM、多变量LSTM、多变量CNN以及多变量CNN-LSTM的滑坡位移预测模型.对比各模型预测精度,结果显示:在衡量模型性能的关键指标MAERMSEMAPER2以及测试集模型预测值和真实值的拟合度方面,多变量CNN-LSTM模型的滑坡位移预测结果均展现出显著优势.因此,该模型可为滑坡体位移的准确预测,以及滑坡灾害的预警预报和防灾减灾工作提供科学依据.

       

      Abstract: Landslides are a common geological hazard that seriously threatens the safety of people’s lives and properties.Hence,the accurate prediction of landslide displacement is imperative to minimize landslide losses.In this study,a multivariate model is developed for landslide displacement prediction by combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM),conducting a principal components analysis to reduce dimensionality,and performing Bayesian optimization on the hyperparameters.Taking Baijiabao landslide as a specific case study,12 sets of monitoring data of Baijiabao landslide from 2017 to 2019 are selected as the basis to construct and compare a univariate CNN-LSTM model,multivariate LSTM model,multivariate CNN model,and multivariate CNN-LSTM model.The results show that the multivariate CNN-LSTM model greatly outperforms the other models in terms of the key performance assessment indicators,including the mean absolute error,root mean square error,mean absolute percentage error,and coefficient of determination of the prediction results.In addition,the fitting curve of values predicted by the multivariate CNN-LSTM model is the closest to that of the true values in the test set.The results of this study show that the multivariate CNN-LSTM model is superior to the other models in the displacement prediction of Baijiabao landslide.Therefore,the multivariate CNN-LSTM model is a novel and effective solution in landslide displacement prediction and a powerful tool for practical disaster prevention and mitigation work.

       

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