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    考虑指标因子差异与SBAS-InSAR技术的多灾种易发性预测——以天津北部山区为例

    The Susceptibility Prediction for Multi-Hazards Considering Difference of Evaluation Factors and SBAS-InSAR Technique: A Case from the Mountainous Area in the Northern Tianjin City

    • 摘要: 多灾种聚集地区的地质灾害易发性预测应针对各类灾害的自身特点建立指标因子评价体系,生成不同种类地质灾害的易发性预测分区图更有利于地质灾害的风险管理与最终决策.以天津北部蓟州山区为例,针对崩塌、滑坡和泥石流灾害的不同机制,分别制定了2套指标因子评价体系,基于统计-人工智能耦合模型和斜坡单元分别建立了适用于崩滑灾害和泥石流灾害的易发性分区图,分别利用ROC曲线和SBAS-InSAR解译得到的地质灾害隐患点进行预测精度验证.研究结果显示:基于历史灾害点与栅格单元的易发性预测性能最高分别可达0.924和0.911;利用SBAS-InSAR技术解译出过去10年间的崩滑隐患点共55处,泥石流灾害共27处,当考虑斜坡单元获得易发性预测分区图时,落入高易发区的隐患点分别达92.7%(崩滑灾害)和100%(泥石流灾害).上述结果表明将机理与人工智能双驱动模式纳入地质灾害易发性评估符合实际情况,能够为多灾种聚集地区的地质灾害防治与风险管控提供科学参考.

       

      Abstract: For the geohazard susceptibility assessment in the regions where multi-hazards exist,the assessment system of evaluation factors should be established regarding the characteristics of various hazards.The creation of susceptibility zonation maps for different hazards is positive for the risk management and control and final decision-making.The mountainous area in the northern Tianjin City was taken as the study area in this study,and 2 sets of evaluation systems were determined in terms of the mechanisms of landslide,collapse and debris flows.The combined algorithms of statistic-artificial intelligence and slope unit were utilized to generate the susceptibility mappings for landslide-collapse and debris flows,respectively.The Receive Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and potential geohazards identified by SBAS-InSAR were applied to verify the prediction accuracy,respectively.The results show that the susceptibility prediction performance based on historical hazard points and grid cell reaches up to 0.924 and 0.911,respectively.The number of potential collapse-landslide points and debris flows during the past 10 years recognized by SBAS-InSAR are 55 and 27,respectively.When the predictive susceptibility zonation is obtained by considering slope unit,the potential hazards located at high susceptibility level reach 92.7% (collapse-landslide) and 100% (debris flow),respectively.The results mentioned above indicate that incorporating the mechanism-data dual driven model into the geohazard susceptibility assessment is in line with reality and can provide a scientific reference for geohazard prevention and risk management in areas with multiple-hazards.

       

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