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    基于频率比和Logistic回归耦合模型的台风暴雨型滑坡危险性评价

    Hazard Assessment of Typhoon-Triggered Landslides Based on Coupled Models of Frequency Ratio and Logistic Regression

    • 摘要: 台风暴雨在浙江省泰顺地区频繁引起滑坡,造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡,准确评价滑坡危险性并定量解释孕灾因子与滑坡危险性关系,对于滑坡风险管控有重要意义.以2016年“莫兰蒂”台风期间浙江泰顺县1 241处滑坡为研究对象,分析了滑坡发育分布规律,选取坡度、坡向、地形曲率、工程地质岩组和降雨等12项评价因子构建危险性评价体系.通过频率比(FR)分析实现孕灾因子数值的单调化处理,结合Logistic回归建立了耦合模型并开展了泰顺县滑坡危险性评价.结果显示:泰顺县台风暴雨型滑坡以小型土质滑坡为主,频率比和Logistic回归耦合模型预测率曲线(ROC)值为0.955.泰顺县滑坡极高/高危险区主要分布在竹里镇、司前镇和乌岩岭自然保护区等西北部地区.Logistic回归系数显示地形曲率、坡度、坡向和植被类型对滑坡危险性影响最大,其解释了孕灾因子数值变化对滑坡发生概率的影响.如地形曲率值与滑坡危险性为负相关,Logistic回归系数为3.479,FR分析揭示曲率值每降低0.1,滑坡发生的概率将增加24.4%.

       

      Abstract: Typhoon and the associated rainstorms induced clusters of landslides in Taishun County,Zhejiang Province,resulting in substantial economic losses and casualties.Quantifying the relationship between inducing factors and landslide occurrence is essential for landslide risk assessment in the region.This study investigated 1 241 landslides triggered by Typhoon Meranti in 2016 and analyzed their spatial distribution.Twelve factors,including slope gradient,aspect,topographic curvature,engineering geological formations,and rainfall,were selected to construct a hazard assessment framework.A coupled model combining frequency ratio (FR) analysis and Logistic regression was further developed,where FR was used to monotonicize the factor data.The results indicate that typhoon-induced landslides in Taishun County are primarily small soil landslides.The proposed model achieved a high predictive performance,with a ROC value of 0.955.Landslide-prone areas are located in Zhuli Town,Siqian Town,and the Wuyanling National Nature Reserve.In addition,Logistic regression coefficients identified topographic curvature,slope gradient,aspect,and vegetation type as the most influential factors controlling landslide occurrence.Specifically,topographic curvature is negatively correlated with landslide hazard (β=3.479),with FR analysis indicating that every 0.1 decrease in curvature increases the probability of landslide occurrence by 24.4%.

       

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