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    基于多种概念性模型的高寒流域径流模拟

    Runoff Simulation in Alpine Basin Based on Multiple Conceptual Hydrological Models

    • 摘要: 开展流域水文模拟研究,揭示径流历史规律和预估未来趋势,对于合理开发和利用流域水资源具有重要指导意义.以青藏高原东北部的大通河流域为研究区,利用eWater Source平台搭载的6种概念性水文模型,以CMFD和ERA5-Land气象数据驱动开展两次日尺度径流模拟实验评估:①单一模型应用于全流域实验;②考虑冰雪因素的多模型组合实验.此外,在每次实验中考虑以子流域为单位率定参数集,对比分析了不同实验设置对结果的影响.单一模型实验结果表明:GR4J、AWBM、Sacramento、SIMHYD、IHACRES-CMD和GR4JSG模型在流域出口享堂站率定期纳什效率系数(NSE)分别为0.73、0.74、0.71、0.62、0.75和0.80.实验筛选出的IHACRES-CMD与GR4JSG组合模型率定期在享堂站NSE为0.83,青石嘴站NSE为0.75,相较于单一模型,组合模型的结果进一步优化,且与同区域其他分布式模型的研究结果基本相当,为研究推荐方法.

       

      Abstract: Investigation on hydrological simulationsto reveal historical change and future projection of runoff is crucial to rational development and utilization of basin water resources.In this study,the Datong River basin in northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is selected as study area,and two experiments of runoff simulation at daily timescale are carried out based on six conceptual hydrological models within the eWater Source platform driven by the CMFD and ERA5-Land meteorological data.In the first experiment,single model is applied to the basin,while in the second experiment,multiple model combinations considering snow and ice are conducted.At the same time,calibrating the parameter set for each sub-basin is considered in each experiment,and the impact of different experiment settings on results is analyzed.Results show that the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) of single models (i.e.,GR4J,AWBM,Sacramento,SIMHYD,IHACRES-CMD and GR4JSG) is 0.73,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.75 and 0.80,respectively during the calibration period.The NSE of IHACRES-CMD and GR4JSG model combination in the calibration period is 0.83 and 0.75 at Xiangtang and Qingshizui stations,respectively.Model combination outperforms single model and the result is comparable to those from distributed models applied in the same basin,and thereby is recommended in this study.

       

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