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    基于最优参数地理探测器的祁连山国家自然保护区生态系统碳储量时空特征及其驱动机制

    Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Its Driving Mechanism in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve Based on Optimal Parameter Geodetector

    • 摘要: 以祁连山国家自然保护区为研究对象,在修正碳密度的基础上,运用InVEST模型和最优参数地理探测器,分析了2000~2020年生态系统碳储量的时空演变特征,探讨了生态系统相互转换对碳储量的影响和碳储量时空分异的驱动因素及其机制.研究结果表明:(1)2000~2020年,碳储量持续增加,累计吸收132.28Tg,空间分布相对稳定,表现为“东高西低”,热点区域以斑块状分布于研究区东部和中部;(2)土地利用类型相互转换推动碳储量增长了141.36Tg,其中,草地向林地、未利用地向水域转换是碳储量增长的主导类型,但林地向草地以及草地向未利用地的转换规模在不断扩大,碳储量流失风险在进一步加剧;(3)海拔、坡度和人口数量是影响碳储量的主要驱动因子,且两两因子间呈双因子增强关系;(4)不同海拔梯度和不同坡度的碳储量存在明显差异,低海拔(1 750~2 400m)区域碳储量较低,中海拔(2 400~3 500m)区域碳储量较高,但此区域受人类活动干扰强烈,碳储量以点状减少;坡度在10°以下的区域,土地利用转化频繁,植被多处被割裂呈点状分布,碳密度较小,坡度在20°以上的区域,水土流失严重,生态环境脆弱,碳储量较小,亟需加强对气候变化的应对措施,注意中海拔区域碳储量的优先保护和陡坡区域水土涵养能力的提升,从整体上促进碳储量提质增效.

       

      Abstract: Based on the modified carbon density in Qilian Mountain National Nature Reserve,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of ecosystem carbon stocks during 2000-2020 were analyzed by using InVEST model and optimal parameter geodetector,and the influence of ecosystem conversion on carbon stocks and the driving factors and mechanisms of spatial and temporal differentiation of carbon stocks were discussed.The results showed as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,carbon storage continued to increase,with a cumulative absorption of 132.28Tg,and the spatial distribution was relatively stable,showing a “high in the east and low in the west”,and the hot spots were distributed in the eastern and central parts of the study area in a patchy way;(2)The conversion of land use type promoted the increase of carbon storage by 141.36Tg.The conversion of grassland to forest land and unused land to water area was the dominant type of carbon storage increase.However,the scale of conversion of forest land to grassland and grassland to unused land was continuously expanding,and the risk of carbon storage loss was further aggravated;(3)Elevation,slope and population are the main driving factors affecting carbon storage,and the relationship between the two factors is double factor enhancement;(4)There are obvious differences in carbon reserves at different altitudes and gradients.The low altitude (1 750~2 400m) region has lower carbon reserves,while the middle altitude (2 400~3 500m) region has higher carbon reserves.However,due to the strong interference of human activities,the carbon reserves in this region are reduced in a dot pattern.In areas with slopes below 10°,land use conversion is frequent,vegetation is fragmented in many places,and carbon density is small.In areas with slopes above 20°,soil erosion is serious,habitat is fragile,and carbon storage is small.It is urgent to strengthen the response measures to climate change.Promote the quality and efficiency of carbon storage as a whole.

       

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