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    基于数值模型和GA-BP神经网络的城市内涝快速预测方法

    Rapid Forecasting Method for Urban Inundation Based on Numerical Model and GA-BP Neural Network

    • 摘要: 由极端降雨事件导致的城市洪涝灾害日益严重,然而数值模型作为目前城市内涝风险分析和预警预报的主要技术手段之一,因其计算速度较慢而难以应对短历时强降雨导致的城市洪涝灾害的预警预报需求.利用AI技术快速和准确地预测城市洪涝灾害过程及风险等级是当前亟待解决的问题.通过GPU加速的高精度水动力模型模拟计算研究区不同降雨重现期下的洪涝结果,利用该洪涝结果驱动GA-BP神经网络模型,构建了城市内涝快速预测模型.研究结果表明:该城市内涝快速预报模型预测精度高,最大积水深度与实测数据相比,其RE不超过-5.4%,RMSE不高于0.025,NSE不低于0.891,其计算速度相比数值模型模拟可提速约349倍.该方法可为城市日常防洪减灾提供技术支撑,有效降低城市内涝灾害带给人民的生命财产损失.

       

      Abstract: The urban inundation disasters caused by extreme rainfall events are becoming increasingly severe.However,numerical models,which are currently one of the main technical means for urban inundation risk analysis and early warning,face challenges in meeting the demands for timely forecasts due to their slow computational speed,particularly in the case of short-duration heavy rainfall events.A pressing issue is how to use AI technology to quickly and accurately predict urban inundation processes.To address this issue,this paper utilizes a high-precision hydrodynamic model accelerated by GPU to simulate inundation results under different rainfall return periods in the study area.These inundation results then drive a GA-BP neural network model to build a rapid urban inundation prediction model.The results indicate that the rapid forecasting model exhibits high prediction accuracy,with the maximum water depth compared to observed data,The RE does not exceed -5.4%,the RMSE is no higher than 0.025,and the NSE is not less than 0.891.The computation speed is approximately 349 times faster than numerical model simulations.This method can meet the daily needs of urban early warning forecasting tasks,enhance the city’s disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities,and effectively reduce losses in terms of human lives and property.

       

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