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    水文水动力模型驱动的流域洪水复盘策略

    Modelling Approach of Basin Flood Assessment Driven by Distributed Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Model

    • 摘要: 近年来,由极端降雨事件引发的突发性暴雨洪水灾害愈加频繁,灾害的成因与致灾机制也在发生变化.为了有效应对新时期洪水灾害带来的挑战,以“23·7”海河流域漳卫河较大洪水为例,提出了基于嵌套式水文水动力模型的流域级洪水复盘策略,对极端洪水灾害的发生、发展和应对过程进行精细化模拟分析.研究结果表明:采用时空变源分布式水文模拟可以对流域不同产流区产流机制的时空动态变化过程进行复盘,从而理清洪水来源;此外,精细化的二维水动力模型可以对蓄滞洪区洪水的演进过程进行模拟,进而对洪水灾害的影响及应对措施进行分析.采用的模型方法均为我国自主研发,参数取值更加稳定,机理表征更贴近我国流域洪水特性,可以基本满足目前数字孪生防洪业务中对洪水全过程精细模拟刻画的要求.以期所提出的模型构建方案为今后流域数字孪生建设提供技术参考.

       

      Abstract: In recent year,the flood disaster caused by the extreme rainfall event becomes more frequent and the formation mechanism and its cause are also changing.In order to effectively address the challenges brought by flood disasters and to promote the construction of a smart water conservancy system,this article takes the “23·7” flood in the Zhangwei River of the Haihe River Basin as an example and proposes a basin flood review scheme based on distributed hydrological and hydrodynamic models.The research results indicate that taking the distributed hydrological model with variable components in space and time to simulate the flood process of different places of the catchment is able to represent the whole runoff generation process of the event and clarify the flood causes.At the same time,the 2D hydraulic model applied for modelling the flood process in the flood detention area is validated for analyzing the flood influences and the effects of implementing certain measures.The modelling tools selected in this research are all developed in China which shows high performance with more stable parameters and better representation of the regional flood mechanism.The modelling approach presented in this paper can be satisfied to the requirements of the digital twin of flood control for having fine simulation and characterization of the entire process of flood occurrence,development,evolution.The model scheme proposed in this article can also provide technical reference for the future digital twin construction in Chinese watersheds.

       

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