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    浙江省大源溪“7·22”短历时暴雨山洪致灾机理分析

    Analysis on the Mechanism of “7·22” Flash Flood Disaster in Dayuanxi,Zhejiang Province

    • 摘要: 受极端天气影响,我国山区小流域暴雨山洪灾害事件频发.2023年7月22日浙江省杭州市富阳区发生短历时极端暴雨山洪灾害,造成严重经济损失和人员伤亡.选取暴雨中心大源溪小流域为研究对象,基于HEC-HMS水文模型,采用SCS曲线数损失模型和SCS水文单位线法模拟流域坡面产汇流过程.选取马斯京根-库格法计算河道汇流,提取流域出口及典型断面的流量过程.结合灾后实地调查的17处洪痕点及4处大断面数据,深入剖析此次山洪过程的响应过程及致灾机理.研究结果表明:模拟的流域出口洪峰流量为169.5m3/s,基于水位流量关系推算的模拟洪峰时刻洪水位与洪痕高程的相对误差仅为0.02%,其他3个调查断面的误差不超过1.1%,验证了模拟结果的可靠性.综合基础资料、野外调查和数值模拟结果发现,此次大源溪“7·22”山洪灾害主要诱因为局地短历时强降雨,3h最大降雨量达198.1mm,重现期超百年一遇.流域独特的地形及河道状况等地理特性使洪水迅速汇集并于极短时间内抵达人口密集区,是导致水位陡涨致灾的重要原因.此外,人类活动如河道整治及河滩占用行为在一定程度上加剧了洪水灾害的影响.因此,加强小流域雨水情测报体系,开展合理的防洪规划和人类活动管理(尤其是在山洪灾害的易灾区),是降低类似区域山洪灾害损失的关键.该研究结果可为其他山洪灾害影响地区提供参考.

       

      Abstract: Frequent flash floods occur in small mountainous watersheds of China due to extreme weather.On July 22,2023,a short-duration extreme rainfall-induced flash flood struck Fuyang District,Hangzhou,Zhejiang Province,causing severe economic losses and casualties.This study focuses on the Dayuanxi basin,using the HEC-HMS hydrological model with the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) curve number loss method and SCS unit hydrograph to simulate runoff generation and confluence processes.The Muskingum-Cunge method was applied for channel routing,and flow hydrographs were extracted at the watershed outlet and key cross-sections.Post-disaster surveys identified 17 flood marks and four major cross-sections,supporting an in-depth analysis of flood response and disaster mechanisms.Results show that the simulated peak discharge at the watershed outlet was 169.5m3/s,with a relative error of 0.02% between the simulated peak water level and observed flood marks.Errors at the other cross-sections did not exceed 1.1%,confirming model reliability.The primary trigger factor was short-duration intense rainfall,with a three-hour maximum precipitation of 198.1mm,exceeding a 100-year return period.The watershed’s unique topography facilitated rapid flood convergence,causing a sudden water level rise in densely populated areas,a key factor in the disaster.Additionally,human activities further exacerbated flood impacts.Strengthening rainfall and hydrological monitoring,improving flood control planning,and managing human activities,especially in flood-prone areas,are key to reducing flash flood losses.These findings provide valuable insights for regions prone to similar flash flood hazards.

       

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