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    基于GWO-LSTM-MLP组合神经网络的干热岩裂隙渗流出口温度预测研究

    Research on Prediction of Effluent Temperature from Fractures in Hot Dry Rock Based on GWO-LSTM-MLP Combined Neural Network

    • 摘要: 在干热岩研究与开发利用过程中,岩体裂隙中的水-岩换热行为是地热工程设计中的核心问题,实现渗流出口水温的准确预测,可大量减少工程成本和能源损耗.使用多场三轴实验系统对U50mm×100mm的花岗岩裂隙试样开展不同环境温度、体积流速下的对流换热实验,建立渗流传热实验数据集,使用灰狼优化算法(Grey Wolf Optimization,GWO)对LSTM-MLP组合神经网络进行参数优选.长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)用于捕捉渗流传热过程中的时间依赖性,多层感知机(Multi-Layer Perceptron,MLP)则用于提取非线性特征,二者结合可实现特征数据处理的优势互补.GWO以其出色的全局搜索能力有效避免陷入局部最优,确保模型参数的最优配置.考虑环境温度、入口温度、体积流速和裂隙开度4个输入参数预测渗流出口水温,引入3种常见的统计学指标评价模型性能,并对渗流传热过程中的时间相关性问题进行了预测.研究结果表明:对比近5年用于地热生产预测的机器学习模型,GWO-LSTM-MLP模型的预测结果最准确(R2=0.989,RMSE=1.238,MAE=0.922),且GWO能够显著提高LSTM-MLP模型的预测效果,GWO参数优选后R2值提高5.3%,RMSE值降低54.37%,MAE值降低60.53%.模型能准确预测渗流出口的稳态温度,其中最大绝对误差为0.8912℃,百分比误差为1.338%.

       

      Abstract: The water-rock heat exchange behavior in rock fractures is considered a critical factor in geothermal engineering design during the research and utilization of hot dry rocks.Accurate prediction of outlet water temperature in fractures is essential to significantly reduce engineering costs and energy consumption.A multi-field triaxial experimental system was employed to perform convective heat transfer experiments on U50mm×100mm granite fracture samples under varying environmental temperatures and volumetric flow rates.A dataset of seepage-heat transfer experimental data was established,and the parameters of a Long Short-Term Memory-Multi-Layer Perceptron (LSTM-MLP) combined neural network were optimized using the Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm.Temporal dependencies in the seepage-heat transfer process were captured by the LSTM network,while nonlinear features were extracted by the MLP,allowing the advantages of both networks to be combined.The GWO algorithm was applied to avoid local optima effectively and to ensure optimal parameter configuration for the model.Four input parameters,including environmental temperature,inlet temperature,volumetric flow rate,and fracture aperture,were selected for predicting the outlet water temperature.Model performance was evaluated using three common statistical metrics,and the temporal correlation of the seepage-heat transfer process was analyzed.The results indicate that the GWO-LSTM-MLP model achieved the highest prediction accuracy compared to machine learning models used for geothermal production prediction in the past five years (R2=0.989; RMSE=1.238; MAE=0.922).The application of GWO significantly improved the model’s performance,increasing R2 by 5.3%,reducing RMSE by 54.37%,and decreasing MAE by 60.53%.The steady-state outlet temperature of the seepage process was accurately predicted,with a maximum absolute error of 0.8912℃ and a percentage error of 1.338%.

       

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