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    山洪灾害“四预”平台构建及其在典型小流域的应用

    “Four Pres” Platform Construction for Flash Flood Disasters: A Case Study of Typical Small Watersheds

    • 摘要: 针对近年山洪灾害事件暴露出的防御短板,提出山洪灾害“四预”(预报、预警、预演、预案)平台的总体架构和业务流程.该平台依托降雨反演与融合、山洪模拟、多阶段递进式山洪灾害预警等关键技术,并结合面向防灾对象的知识图谱支撑,实现了数字化模拟、精准化预警与智慧化防控的“四预”功能.以云南省鲤鱼河和上清河2个小流域典型山洪灾害事件为例,平台中的山洪模拟模型对2场山洪过程的模拟结果与实际洪水调查情况基本吻合;多阶段递进式预警技术可提供超前风险提示,其中鲤鱼河流域提前15h发布气象风险预警,提前2h发布临近预报预警,上清河流域则提前8h发布气象风险预警,提前3h发布临近预报预警,减少了漏报和误报现象.预演从最不利角度出发,2个小流域受影响人口较常规情景分别增加22%和21%,实现了到户到人的精细风险判定,为扩面转移提供依据.基于预警与预演结果制定的防御预案更具针对性和可操作性.研究成果为全国范围内推进小流域山洪灾害“四预”能力建设提供了示范技术路径,有助于提升山洪灾害防御能力.

       

      Abstract: To address the defense weaknesses exposed by recent flash flood disasters,the overall architecture and operational workflow of the “Four Pres” platform (Forecast,Early Warning,Rehearsal,and Plan) for flash flood disasters were proposed.Supported by key technologies such as rainfall inversion and fusion,flash flood simulation,multi-stage progressive early warnings,and disaster-prevention knowledge graphs,the platform enabled digital simulation,precise early warning,and intelligent prevention and control.Taking the typical flash flood disaster events in the two small Liyu and Shangqing watersheds in Yunnan Province as case studies,the simulation results for the two flash flood events aligned with the actual flood survey findings.The multi-stage progressive early warning technology provided advance risk alerts while reducing missed and false alarms.The rehearsal assumed worst-case scenarios,with the affected populations in two small watersheds increasing by 22% and 21%,respectively,compared to conventional scenarios.This function enabled risk assessments precise to individual households and persons,providing a basis for the expanded evacuation.Based on the results of early warnings and rehearsals,the proposed defense plans were more targeted and actionable.These findings provide a demonstrative technical pathway for promoting the “Four Pres” capacity construction for flash flood disasters in small watersheds nationwide and enhance flash flood disaster defense capacity.

       

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