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    基于洪水过程矢量方向的深度学习洪水概率预报方法

    Deep Learning Flood Probabilistic Forecasting Method Based on Vector Direction of Flood Process

    • 摘要: 准确的洪水预报对防洪减灾、保障人民生命财产安全以及提升水资源利用和保护水平具有重要意义.为提高洪水预报的精度和可靠性,研究在LSTM模型的输入、输出层分别耦合径流过程矢量化方法与Bootstrap区间预测算法,构建了一种基于洪水过程矢量方向的深度学习概率预报模型(VD-LSTM-Bootstrap).以静乐和卢氏流域为研究对象,选取50场和20场实测洪水数据,按照7∶3的比例划分为训练集和验证集.结果表明:相较于LSTM,VD-LSTM模型整体预报性能更好,NSE均在0.8以上,洪峰流量误差小于15%,均方根误差和偏差更小;VD-LSTM的流量模拟结果与实测流量过程线吻合程度更高,有效缓解了原模型对洪峰低估和预报滞后的问题.在概率预报方面,VD-LSTM-Bootstrap模型提供的置信区间具有较高可靠性,静乐和卢氏流域的覆盖率分别为90.1%、85.5%、80.3%和91.7%、86.2%、81.6%,均超出对应的置信水平.该方法为融合过程水文分析与数据驱动建模技术提供了新思路.

       

      Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting plays a critical role in flood prevention,disaster mitigation,and sustainable water resources management.This study introduces VD-LSTM-Bootstrap,an integrated machine learning framework,to enhance forecasting reliability through two methodological advancements: the integration of flood process vectorization at the LSTM input layer for characterizing runoff variation patterns and the implementation of Bootstrap resampling at the output layer for uncertainty quantification.The model was applied to the Jingle and Lushi River basins in China,utilizing 50 and 20 historical flood events,respectively,divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7∶3.The results indicate that the VD-LSTM model achieves superior performance compared to standard LSTM model,with NSE values consistently above 0.8,peak flow relative errors remaining below 15%,and significantly reduced root mean square error and bias metrics.The enhanced hydrograph fitting capability effectively addresses both the underestimation of flood peaks and time lag issues commonly encountered in conventional LSTM approaches.Furthermore,the VD-LSTM-Bootstrap model generates reliable confidence intervals,exhibiting coverage rates of 90.1%,85.5%,and 80.3% in Jingle Basin and 91.7%,86.2%,and 81.6% in Lushi Basin,systematically surpassing their respective theoretical confidence levels.This methodology establishes a novel framework for combining process-based hydrological analysis with data-driven modeling techniques.

       

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