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    基于联系数新距离测度的区域水资源安全评价

    Regional Water Resources Security Evaluation Based on New Distance Measure of Connection Number

    • 摘要: 为克服传统联系数方法在区域水资源安全评价中对信息动态性考虑不足的问题,引入一阶偏联系数方法,通过分析同、异、反分量之间的动态演化关系,构建联系数的偏三角形结构,并进一步结合几何重心模型,提出一种新的联系数距离测度.综合考虑水资源、生态环境和社会经济对区域水资源安全的影响,选取人口密度、受灾面积占比和污水处理率等12项评价指标,基于所提出的联系数新距离测度,对京津冀地区水资源安全状况开展实证分析.研究结果显示:2006~2020年京津冀地区水资源安全状况均介于“安全”与“较不安全”之间,波动较为显著,水资源安全情势仍较严峻,但总体上呈现逐年改善趋势;其中,北京的水资源安全状况优于河北与天津,而天津的水资源安全形势最为严峻.基于联系数新距离测度的区域水资源安全评价方法具有良好的概念解释力、评价结果准确可靠,可为合理评估水资源安全问题提供新思路.

       

      Abstract: To overcome the problem of insufficient consideration of information dynamics in the traditional connection number method for regional water resources security evaluation,the first-order partial connection number method is introduced,and the dynamic evolution between the identity,discrepancy and contrary components is taken into account to construct the partial triangle of the connection number,and then a new distance measure of the connection number was proposed with the help of the geometric center of gravity model.Considering the impacts of water resources,ecological environment and social economy on regional water resources security,an empirical study on water resources security evaluation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the new distance measure of the connection number was carried out by using 12 indicators such as population density,the percentage of the affected area and the sewage treatment rate,etc.The results show that:between 2006 and 2020,the water resources security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was between safe relatively unsafe,with significant fluctuations.The situation of water resources security is still severe,but it shows a year-on-year improvement trend in general;the water resources situation in Beijing is better than that in Hebei and Tianjin,with Tianjin facing the most severe water resources security situation.The regional water resources security evaluation method based on the new distance measure of connection number is characterized by good conceptual interpretation,and accurate and reliable evaluation results,and provides a new way for the rational water resources security evaluating problems.

       

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