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    融合确定性物理模拟和机器学习的设定地震宽频带三维地震动参数预测方法

    Prediction Method of 3D Ground Motion Parameters for Broadband Scenario Earthquake Based on Deterministic Physical Simulation and Machine Learning

    • 摘要: 针对近地表低波速土体特性(异质性、非线性、滤波放大)难以纳入确定性物理模拟的三维地震动参数预测中,提出了一种融合确定性物理模拟和机器学习的设定地震宽频带三维地震动参数预测方法.首先,基于KiK-Net强震动数据库,根据场地参数和选定基岩面的地震动参数,结合随机森林算法开展训练,预测地表的东西向(EW)、南北向(NS)和竖向(UD)的地震动参数;其次,基于确定性物理的设定地震动模拟方法,得到基岩面处的地震动参数;最后,利用训练好的随机森林模型,以模拟结果和场地参数为输入,预测地表不同周期的地震动参数,输出地表位置的峰值加速度(PGA)和谱加速度(Sa).在对随机森林模型预测结果进行评估之后,以2016年Mw 6.2日本鸟取地震为例,将方法的宽频带(0.1~10.0Hz)结果与观测数据和地震动预测方程结果进行对比,验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性,最后基于上述方法给出区域的地震动参数分布结果.

       

      Abstract: In order to incorporate the properties of surface low-wave velocity soils (heterogeneity,nonlinearity,filter amplification) into the physics-based simulation and prediction of 3D ground motion parameters,this paper proposes a hybrid method combining physics-based ground motion simulation and Random Forest model.The paper describes the process for predicting ground vibration parameters in three directions (East-West,North-South,and Vertical) using data from the KiK-Net strong motion database.Firstly,the ground motion parameters are predicted using the Random Forest model trained on site parameters and ground motion parameters from selected bedrock surfaces.Then,the physics-based ground motion simulation method is used to obtain the ground motion parameters at the bedrock surfaces.Finally,the trained Random Forest model is used to predict the 3D ground motion parameters using the simulation results and site parameters as inputs.The trained Random Forest model predicts the ground vibration parameters at different cycles of the ground surface using the simulation results and site parameters as inputs.It outputs the peak acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) at the ground surface location.After evaluating the prediction results of the Random Forest model,taking the 2016 Mw 6.2 Tottori earthquake in Japan as an example,the broadband (0.1~10.0Hz) results of the method are compared with the observed data and ground motion prediction equation to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.The results of the ground motion parameters distribution in the region are presented based on the method.

       

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