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    考虑壤中流时空分异性的混合产流模型的构建及其应用

    Construction of a Mixed Rainfall-Runoff Model Considering the Spatiotemporal Variability of Interflow and Its Application

    • 摘要: 受降雨径流过程非线性影响,半干旱半湿润地区的洪水预报精度通常难以达到防洪调度及管理需求.以河北省邢台市柳林实验流域为研究对象,基于对“降雨-流量-土壤水分剖面”观测数据的分析,发现蓄满产流与超渗产流在大多数洪水场次中难以大范围发生,而壤中流作为主要的径流成分,其产流受土壤含水率影响,并表现出明显的时空分异性.针对这一特征,在新安江模型基础上,引入虚拟自由水蓄水库以计算超渗产流,利用自由水含量计算出流系数并进行水源划分,采用P次抛物线表征流域下垫面的非均质性,构建了考虑壤中流时空分异性的混合产流模型.基于24场典型洪水的模拟结果表明,考虑壤中流时空分异性的混合产流模型的模拟精度高于新安江模型:平均纳什效率系数(NSE)提高0.05,平均相关系数(R)提高0.02,平均洪峰相对误差降低2%,平均洪量相对误差降低3%.该模型在中小洪水模拟中表现尤为优势,并能更准确地模拟土壤含水率的变化.研究结果对于提升半干旱半湿润地区的洪水预报与防洪调度能力具有重要的理论意义和实践价值.

       

      Abstract: Nonlinear rainfall-runoff processes limit the accuracy of flood forecasting in semi-arid and semi-humid regions,which can not meet the requirement of flood regulation and management.Taking the Liulin experimental watershed in Xingtai City,Hebei Province as the study area,analysis of the observed “rainfall-discharge-soil moisture profile” data indicates that saturation-excess runoff and infiltration-excess runoff rarely occur at large scales during most flood events,while interflow serves as the dominant runoff component.Runoff generation is influenced by soil moisture content and exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal variability.Considering these characteristics,a mixed rainfall-runoff model considering spatiotemporal variability of interflow is developed based on the Xin’anjiang model.In the model,a virtual free water reservoir is introduced to calculate infiltration-excess runoff,free water content is employed to derive outflow coefficients for water sources dividing,and a P-order parabolic function is used to describe the heterogeneity of underlying surface conditions.Simulation results of 24 typical flood events demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the Xin’anjiang model,with the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) improved by 0.05,the average correlation coefficient (R) improved by 0.02,the average relative flood peak error reduced by 2%,and the average relative runoff volume error decreased by 3%.The improvements are more significant for small to medium floods,and the model also better reproduces soil moisture dynamics.The findings of the study could provide theoretical significance and practical value for flood forecasting and regulation in semi-arid and semi-humid regions.

       

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