Future Projection of Spatial-temporal Changes of Hydro-Solar-Wind Power Generation Factors in Nine Major Basins of China

To achieve the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”,we are currently promoting the large-scale and high proportion development of new energy in China,which acts as the core of a new-type power system in construction.In this context,multiple hydro-solar-wind clean energy bases have been planned nationwide.The production of hydro-solar-wind power has been shown directly relevent to four hydro-meteorological factors including precipitation,runoff,surface radiation and wind speed,which are extremely sensitive to climate change.In this study,to explore characteristics of the complementary efficiency evolution in multi-energy systems with hydropower as the primary regulating power source in an uncertain environment,we collect 14 climate models which include the above four factors in different scenarios (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5) from the Sixth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6).The spatial-temporal changes of the four factors during 1971~2100 and their potential impacts on the hydro-solar-wind complementary power generation have been explored at basin scale.Results indicate that there will be high increase (decrease) amplitude and possibility of precipitation,runoff and radiation (wind speed) in the far future (2061~2100) compared with the near future (2021~2060).In the far future,precipitation and runoff in several basins (such as the Haihe,Songliao,Inland,Huaihe and Southwest River basins) will increase significantly.It implies that,under simplified constraints such as ignoring regulation capacities of hydropower,the solar and wind power generation to the power grid regulated by hydropower in these basins will be significantly improved.