Projection of Future Changing Characteristics of Hydro,Wind and Solar Energy Sources in the Upper Yellow River

The construction of basin-scale hydro-wind-solar hybrid generation system represents a crucial pathway to implement the “dual carbon” goals.However,hydropower,wind power,and solar power are all influenced by meteorological and climatic factors,and the changing global climate exposes higher risks to safe and efficient operation of the hydro-wind-solar hybrid generation system.Therefore,it is urgent to study the evolution characteristics of hydroelectric,wind,and solar energy resources under climate change,thereby providing a scientific basis for the adaptive regulation of such integrated systems.In this study,we developed simulation models for runoff and wind-solar power output under multiple CMIP6 models and scenarios to project the evolution characteristics of hydro-wind-solar energy sources in the upper Yellow River.The results indicate that under CMIP6 scenarios,the future multi-year average runoff is projected to decrease compared to the historical baseline period.The potential for solar photovoltaic power generation is projected to increase significantly,while the potential for wind power generation is projected to decrease significantly.Compared to the historical baseline period,the future changes in runoff,wind potential,and solar potential are,respectively,-27.7%~-12.6%,1.1%~15.6% and -29.2%~-15.1%.